2.0 sales estimates?


#1

I know RL doesn’t often reveal exact sales figures, so does anyone have any guesses? I suspect they are selling a MASSIVE amount of 2.0. It’s by far the most enthusiastically received version yet, and for me personally the first one I can tolerate. (Good job RL!) Their communications team coordinated that huge media blitz announcing the relase of 2.0. (It probably didn’t cost them any money either, man this company is charmed) I keep reading on Reddit people upping their subscriptions. I personally have ordered more, and my housemate just had 84 bottles delivered. I’m pretty sure that’s his new subscription.


#2

No idea, but they had an initial 156,000 meals (62.4 million calories!) in their L.A. warehouse. Mine came from the PA location, so assuming an even split between the two you’d have an initial 312,000 meals, plus Canada. Assuming an additional 34,682 meals for Canada, my guess is 346,682 meals… plus reorders of I-have-no-idea. I’ve personally ordered a second case so far (and probably would have ordered more if I didn’t still have three boxes of 1.5), so extrapolating my own experience to everyone (i.e., guessing) would mean 693,364 total meals thus far. I wish we had real data to compare my guesses to. :grin:

Maybe they’ll post on Facebook or something when they ship their one millionth bottle of 2.0? I imagine it would be soon if they do, and that would give us one more data point.


#3

That would be awesome.

And thanks for your calculations/guesses. Looks good to me.


#4

According to today’s (10/2/15) blog post on the fulfillment delay, they have shipped 400,000 bottles of 2.0 to date. At roughly $2.50 per bottle, that’s $1 million of revenue in the first month.


#5

I love how you took information on something else and applied it in an unintended way. Since you provided the initial figures, let me take it a step further.

They began shipping on 9/9/2015 and paused shipping temporarily on 9/30/2015. Assuming they only ship on business days (M-F), that is 15 days worth of shipments, or around 27,000 (26,666) bottles shipped per business day, or around 133,000 (133,333) shipped per “standard” (5-day) business week. At $2.42 per bottle for the subscription rate and $2.83 per bottle for the non-subscription rate without further discounts, I’d say the $2.50 estimate per bottle is decent. $2.50 * 133,333 = $333,332.50 * 52 (business weeks in a year) = around $17 million.($17,333,290) for a year. Of course, they might be shipping more right now since the product was just released, so we should put some bounds of uncertainty around that figure. A range of $15 to $20 million in revenue for Soylent 2.0 alone at the current rate of sale in a 12-month period might be a good estimate. Of course, this could go up or down depending on many other factors; That is just at the current rate.

Given the above estimates, calories provided would be at a rate of around 53 million per week or 2.7 billion per year. (from around 6.9 million meals/year)


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#6

Wow. This is pretty cool.

So depending on how much 1.5 they’re selling, $2 million/month in revenue could actually be a pretty good estimate.


#7

Great job @inquirerer, thanks. One thing to consider is that 2.0 is much more suited to spreading by ‘word of mouth’ since it’s easier to bring/store at work, and also easy (and more appetizing) to give bottles away to people wanting to try it instead of offering sips from a glass after pouring it from the big pitcher.


#8

It would be even better if they had a nutrition label!

also it’s not gassy, and that’s a huge benefit to spreading to a wider market. I couldn’t stand living in a world full of Soylent farts