Production volume

Any estimate of number of Soylent users?

Est 2015 sales: $36M

Average price per bag: $8

4,500,000 bags/year

Interpolated from @inquirerer monthly poll, the average Soylent user consumes .5525 bags/day ~ 200 bags/user/year

4,500,000 bags/year / 200 bags/user/year ~ 22,500 users

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Thanks for estimate. I’m trying to figure how big a potential Soylent is for Solazyme

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Wow! I’m surprised there aren’t more users to reach $36M – that’s $1600/year/person. Your math checks out, I just never calculated the cost of a full year’s worth of Soylent before. And I don’t think I will again. o_0 Especially not next year, when the cost of 2.0 factors in more heavily.

4.5M bags, with 460g per bag * 20% algea = 414000 kg of algae.

Though that’s wrong, since i went by weight of a 1.5 bag, not caloric content of 2.0

That’s only in 2.0 right now, isn’t it? I’d love to know how many people will be switching to 2.0 entirely. I’d bet that a large percentage of the current orders are from people who’re ordering it just once to see what it tastes like.

…Soylent ought to look into going to events like Dragon*Con in the future. I bet they could make a small fortune by selling single bottles for $5 each. Even at $5 it would be the best nutrition/$ that most con-goers see all weekend, and Soylent would probably get a few new long-term customers, too.

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Where did this come from?

http://www.inc.com/will-yakowicz/2015-30-under-30-soylent.html

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Cool, I hadn’t seen that one, thanks for sharing; I must have missed it somewhere along the way.

Or they could sell them at $2.50 so people could get an idea of the actual cost. Free samples, like they did at Outside Lands, might be an even better idea.

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This is a good example how big the powdered food market could become.
Because each customer not only eats it occassiobally, like his favorite chocolate, but gobbles Soylent for >1000$ per year.
This means one regular customer spends as much on soylent than on all other foods combined.

Soylent customers are like smokers. Longterm and reliable and spending big money.

Apparently I’m an outlier in chocolate consumption. :frowning:

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Time to catch up?

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I think the math checks out but the user total is too conservative – it is the number of full-equivalent annual users, assuming that every user consumes .5525 bags per day every day from January 1 to December 31. But Soylent is on a high growth trajectory, so many, many users will consume less than the assumed 200 bags per year simply because they only started consuming sometime into the year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the “average” Soylent consumer (i.e., averaging those who were buying January 1 with those whose first purchase was in December) consumed for 6 months or less – which would effectively double that 22,500 figure.

In addition, the figure doesn’t take into account folks who tried Soylent but didn’t like it – they’re part of that 4.5M bags total, but they certainly aren’t consuming 200 bags.

If $36M is the right revenue figure, my guess as to the number of people who will have purchased and consumed Soylent in 2015 would be at least 50,000.

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Great idea!!! I would LOVE to see Soylent or anything similar being sold at expos and cons! I wouldn’t line up for it though…I would bring it with me from home :stuck_out_tongue: I never actually buy food at the expos because the time wasted in food lineups could be time wasted in autograph lineups instead.

Moreover the survey on this forum has a strong selection bias, and is probably not representative of the average user.

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